Archive for December, 2009

Top Automotive Awards of 2009

December 30, 2009 by Colin Bird

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As we wind down the year, every major consumer and trade publication has had their say about the year that’s come to pass. Here is the summation of the most important awards doled out.

Notables include the IIHS “Top Safety Picks.” Did you notice that not one Toyota made the “Top Safety Picks” for 2010? That’s due to a new rollover crash test criteria added this year by the IIHS (last year 7 Toyota models made the list). Automaker’s who did well include Subaru. Every model Subaru makes was a “Top Safety Pick.”

In Consumer Reports’ most satisfying car to own survey, the Dodge Challenger beat out the long standing Toyota Prius to become the most satisfying car to own. 92% of owners said they would definitely buy another new Challenger if given the opportunity.

In J.D. Power’s vehicle dependability study, Mercury and Jaguar surpassed long standing Lexus as the most dependable makes on the market. Lexus had held the title since 1995.

An award that still hasn’t been decided is the North American Car and Truck of the Year. This will be announced during the Detroit Auto Show. Finalists for that include the Buick LaCrosse, Ford Fusion Hybrid and Volkswagen Golf/GTI/TDI on the car side; and the Chevrolet Equinox, Ford Transit Connect and Subaru Outback on the truck.

The list of prominent awards for the year are as follows.


Cars.com 2010 Platinum Awards

  • Best New SUV of 2010: Chevrolet Equinox
  • Best New Compact of 2010: Mazda3
  • Best New Hatchback of 2010: Kia Soul
  • Best New Hybrid Hatchback of 2010: Toyota Prius
  • Best New Hybrid Sedan of 2010: Ford Fusion Hybrid
  • Best New Wagon of 2010: Subaru Outback

2010 Ward’s Best Engines Choices

  • 2.0L TFSI Turbocharged DOHC I-4 (Audi A4)
  • 3.0L TFSI Supercharged DOHC V-6 (Audi S4)
  • 3.0L DOHC I-6 Turbodiesel (BMW 335d)
  • 2.5L DOHC I-4 Hybrid (Ford Fusion Hybrid)
  • 3.5L EcoBoost Turbocharged DOHC V-6 (Ford Taurus SHO)
  • 2.4L Ecotec DOHC I-4 (Chevrolet Equinox)
  • 4.6L Tau DOHC V-8 (Hyundai Genesis)
  • 2.5L Turbocharged DOHC H-4 (Subaru Legacy 2.5GT)
  • 1.8L DOHC I-4 Hybrid (Toyota Prius)
  • 2.0L SOHC I-4 Turbodiesel (Volkswagen Jetta SportWagen TDI)

Car and Driver “10BEST” CARS FOR 2010

  • 2010 Audi S4
  • 2010 BMW 3 Series / M3
  • 2010 Cadillac CTS / CTS-V
  • 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid
  • 2010 Honda Accord
  • 2010 Honda Fit
  • 2010 Mazda Miata MX-5
  • 2010 Mazda3 / MazdaSpeed3
  • 2010 Porsche Boxster / Cayman
  • 2010 Volkswagen GTI

2010 Motor Trend Truck, Car and SUV of the Year

  • 2010 Ram Heavy Duty (truck)
  • 2010 Ford Fusion (car)
  • 2010 Subaru Outback (suv)

Kelley Blue Book 2010 Best Resale Value

  • Mid-sized Pickup: Toyota Tacoma
  • High-Performance Car: Chevrolet Camaro SS
  • Full-sized Pickup: Ford F-Series Super Duty
  • Hybrid Car: Toyota Prius
  • Compact SUV: Honda CR-V
  • Compact Car: MINI Cooper Clubman
  • Mid-sized SUV: Toyota Highlander
  • Mid-sized Car: Honda Accord
  • Full-sized SUV: Honda Pilot
  • Full-sized Car: Ford Taurus
  • Luxury SUV: Lexus RX 350
  • Near-luxury car: Lexus IS
  • Hybrid SUV: BMW X5 Turbo Diesel
  • Luxury Car: Audi A5
  • Minivan: Toyota Sienna
  • Sports Car: Nissan 370Z

2010 Edmunds Most Wanted Awards

  • 2010 Porsche Panamera
  • 2010 Audi R8 5.2 FSI Quattro
  • 2010 Ford F-150 SVT Raptor
  • 2010 Mazda 3
  • 2010 Ford Flex Ecoboost
  • 2010 Ford Shelby GT500

2010 North American Car of the Year finalists:

  • Buick LaCrosse
  • Ford Fusion Hybrid
  • Volkswagen Golf/GTI/TDI

2010 North American Truck of the Year finalists:

  • Chevrolet Equinox
  • Ford Transit Connect
  • Subaru Outback

2010 All-Stars by Automobile Magazine:

  • 2010 Ford Flex
  • 2010 Ford Fusion Hybrid

2010 IIHS Top Safety Picks:

Large Cars:

  • Buick LaCrosse
  • Ford Taurus
  • Lincoln MKS
  • Volvo S80

Midsize Cars:

  • Audi A3
  • Chevrolet Malibu (built after Oct. 2009)
  • Chrysler Sebring 4-door (w/ optional ESC)
  • Dodge Avenger (w/ optional ESC)
  • Mercedes-Benz C-Class
  • Subaru Legacy
  • Subaru Outback
  • Volkswagen Jetta sedan
  • Volkswagen Passat sedan
  • Volvo C30

Small Cars:

  • Honda Civic 4-door
  • Kia Soul
  • Nissan Cube
  • Subaru Impreza (except WRX)
  • Volkswagen Golf 4-door

Midsize SUVs:

  • Dodge Journey
  • Subaru Tribeca
  • Volvo XC60
  • Volvo XC90

Small SUVs:

  • Honda Element
  • Jeep Patriot (w/ optional side air bags)
  • Subaru Forester
  • Volkswagen Tiguan

Consumer Reports Most Satisfying Cars:

Sporty Cars:

  • Dodge Challenger (V8)
  • Porsche 911 Carrera S
  • BMW 135i
  • Chevrolet Corvette Z06
  • BMW M3
  • Ford Mustang GT (V8)
  • Mini Cooper (hatchback)
  • Porsche Cayman
  • Mazdaspeed3

Roadster:

  • Chevrolet Corvette (base)
  • Porsche Boxster
  • Mazda MX-5 Miata

Coupes & Convertibles:

  • BMW 335i

Small Cars:

  • Mini Cooper Clubman
  • Honda Fit

Family Cars:

  • Ford Fusion Hybrid
  • Toyota Prius
  • Volkswagen Jetta TDI
  • Toyota Camry Hybrid
  • Ford Fusion (V6)
  • Mercury Milan (V6)

Upscale Cars:

  • Acura TL (AWD)
  • Hyundai Genesis
  • BMW 335i (sedan, AWD)
  • Pontiac G8 (V8)
  • BMW 335i (sedan, RWD)

Luxury Cars:

  • Lexus LS 460
  • Mercedes-Benz S550

Wagon:

  • Volkswagen Jetta TDI
  • Toyota Venza (V6)

Small SUVs:

  • Ford Escape Hybrid (FWD)
  • Mercury Mariner Hybrid (FWD)

Midsized SUV:

  • Ford Flex

Luxury SUV:

  • Lexus RX

Upscale Compact SUV

  • Volkswagen Tiguan

Minivans:

  • Honda Odyssey

Compact Pickups:

  • Honda Ridgeline

J.D. Power Vehicle Dependability

*Major problems per 100 vehicles over 3 years.

  • Buick (122)
  • Jaguar (122)
  • Lexus (125)
  • Toyota (129)
  • Mercury (134)
  • Infiniti (142)
  • Acura (146)
  • Lincoln (147)
  • Cadillac (148)
  • Honda (148)
  • Porsche (150)
  • Audi (159)
  • Ford (159)
  • Hyundai (161)
  • Subaru (162)
  • Chrysler (165)
  • BMW (166)
  • Industry Average (170)
  • GMC (172)
  • Mercedes (184)
  • Chevrolet (185)
  • Mitsubishi (185)
  • Volvo (186)
  • Nissan (199)
  • Dodge (202)
  • Mini (205)
  • Saturn (211)
  • Kia (218)
  • Jeep (220)
  • Pontiac (220)
  • Hummer (221)
  • Scion (222)
  • Saab (226)
  • Mazda (227)
  • Isuzu (234)
  • Land Rover (238)
  • Volkswagen (260)
  • Suzuki (263)

Images by: Andrew Walensa

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It’s Lonely at the Top: Toyota’s Travails

December 28, 2009 by Colin Bird

briefcase

sadtoyota

You only have to go back two years (the peak of the housing bubble) to a time where the world was Toyota’s oyster. Toyota’s many successes had finally reached a pinnacle in 2007. General Motors death by one thousand cuts was completed (more or less) thus codifying the Nipponese automaker’s many accomplishments into the title of number one car maker.

As the Detroit 3 scrambled to save themselves – Toyota’s then CEO Katsuaki Watanabe was busily plotting an empire. On the top of Mount Fuji, Watanabe proudly proclaimed Toyota’s “master plan” which included a goal of 15% global market share by 2010 – for perspective, General Motors had 16% global market share in 1999.

My what 24 months can do to humble a goliath? Now Toyota’s latest CEO Akio Toyoda, Watanabe committed seppuku over his hubris, says the largest automaker may be locked into a spiral of decline (akin to GM circa 1978-2008).

Toyoda, ancestor to founder Kiichiro Toyoda and for which the company is named, has legitimate reasons to worry.

“Can Akio Save Toyota?”

akio-toyoda Since the beginning of the recession, Toyota’s overall sales have plunged. Toyota has performed worse than the industry average and thus global market share has actually declined from 13.1% in 2008, to 11.8% forecasted for 2009.

According to the Economists, European sales are at their lowest levels since 2005. Toyota isn’t doing great in China, India or Brazil either and these will be the most vital markets in the future – China is already the world’s largest car market.

In America, which accounts for 31% of Toyota’s global sales (the biggest share), sales have fallen -23.2% for the year. Interestingly, Toyota’s U.S. market share has remained stable at 16.7%, while Ford has increased its share to nearly 16%. Ford, VW, Hyundai and Honda have gained most of the market share lost by GM/ Chrysler.

In America, not only have sales suffered but the car maker’s reputation has also taken a ding. Toyota has suffered an embarrassing string of recalls over safety – the latest one involving the Corolla and Matrix.

Obviously the recall that’s getting all the attention is the 4.26 million Toyota and Lexus vehicles that were recalled over sudden acceleration claims. The recall concerns were brought to light when a California Highway Patrol officer and his family died at an intersection in a rental Lexus – unintended acceleration was the culprit.

Adding insult to injury, the IIHS announced that not one of its 2010 “Top Safety Picks” was a Toyota. This is after the institute added a tough new roof crush standard.

Toyota’s vaulted reliability standards have also been tarnished. Consumer Reports, every American consumer’s holy bible, said it would no longer recommend any new or redesigned Toyota-built model without reliability data. Before that, Toyotas would get a pass: Honda’s and Subaru’s still do. This change was due to the V6 Toyota Camry, 4WD V8 Tundra and AWD Lexus GS receiving worse than average reliability scores in 2007.

Toyota’s reliability scores have rebounded since then, 18 of the 48 top rate Consumer Reports vehicles are Toyotas – that’s the most any car marker received. Still, the Toyota Camry (the U.S. bestselling car) only has average reliability; the Honda Accord and Ford Fusion have better scores.

J.D Power’s most recent study of 3-year dependability showed that Lexus, the top rated since 1995, had lost the spot to Buick and Jaguar. Toyota was in fourth place.

All of this has hurt Toyota’s bottom line. According to the Economists, Toyota made its first net loss in nearly 60 years; about $4.3 billion was lost in FY 2008-2009. More startling is the fact that Toyota has been losing more money than GM (pre-bankruptcy) over the past financial year.

Toyoda expects further losses during FY 2009-2010, to the toll of some $5 billion forecasted – though that sounds like a conservative estimate.

Despite all the negative press about reliability and safety, the real thing that’s currently bleeding Toyota’s coffers is its production capacity. According to Global Insight, Toyota currently has global annual production capacity of about 10 million vehicles, but will only produce 6.68 million vehicles globally in 2009, down almost 28% from over 9 million units in 2008.

The yen is also another factor. According to Toyota’s Executive Vice President “the yen should be a little weaker” and that the current level of 90 yen per dollar is “painful.”

To correct the yen issue, Toyota has begun building more of its cars in the United States. Domestic production has increased to 61.9% of the makers total U.S. sales, up from 54.8% in 2008. Some new models built in the U.S. include the Venza and RAV4.

nummi Also, in order to correct the errors that occurred during the expansionists’ era, Toyota will cut its ties with the NUMMI plant in California (the only car plant left in California) in March 2010.

Toyota will transfer production of the NUMMI Tacoma compact pickup to its factory in San Antonio, Texas in June 2010, while production of the Corolla and Matrix will move to its factory in Ontario, Canada and to Japan.

While Toyota will be closing some factories in markets where it is having trouble, it will also be investing in new green-sites in places such as India and Thailand – where Toyota remains relatively weak, but car growth is rampant.

By reducing unneeded production capacity, Toyota intends to raise the operation level at its plants above the break-even point of 70%, according to Global Insight.

The latest Consumer Reports findings prove that Toyota can turn around reliability around quickly. What remains to be seen if it can turn around its safety issues. Though, a class-action suit that accused Toyota of covering up evidence that it knew some of its vehicles were deadly in roll-overs, we’re talking Camry’s and Corolla’s, was just dismissed by a federal judge. Safety issues involving a falsified study involving Audi, crippled the brand in the US for decades – the same could very much happen to Toyota.

One bright spot in Toyota’s realm is its hybrids. The new Prius hybrid is topping the charts in Japan for the sixth straight month in a row. In America, some 127,907 Prius’s have been sold. That’s down from 151,025 in 2008, but makes it the 16th bestselling vehicle in America. Building on the strengths of the Prius, Toyota will add a plug-in version in 2012.

Toyota’s U.S. car market share has remained stable as well (19.2%), and the automaker performed the best in the U.S. cash rebate program known as “Cash for Clunkers,” beating out GM and Ford.

The automaker is also receiving higher-than-expected orders for the Lexus HS250h, along with higher demand for its other fuel-efficient models across the world. Toyota still plans on offering a full hybrid lineup by 2020, and will double its hybrid lineup shortly after 2010.

2010_NAIAS_Hybrid_Concept_1 Toyota’s future subcompact hybrid. Cheaper than Prius, arriving in 2011.

It has already been confirmed that the newly redesigned 2011 Toyota Sienna will be offered as a hybrid in a year’s time. Toyota will also unveil a new dedicated hybrid model at the 2010 Detroit Auto Show. This model will be much smaller than the Prius, and will be cheaper. Expect the new model to go on sale in 2011.

If Toyota can keep a lock on the hybrid market, expand its presence in India, China and Brazil, and mitigate the damage of the U.S. recalls the automaker should be able to hold onto its mantle as the world’s largest automaker for a few more years to come.

But with a resurgent Volkswagen (VW surpassed Toyota in global sales for the month of November, Toyota still has a healthy lead for 2009) and a rapidly growing Hyundai, any misstep by Toyota and these two new soaring dragons will surely eat the automaker’s lunch.

This Week in Cars: 12.20.2009 – 12.26.2009

December 27, 2009 by Colin Bird

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AutoBird Podcast – Episode 8

December 22, 2009 by Colin Bird

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Too Small to Save: Why Did We Save GMAC?

December 21, 2009 by Colin Bird

briefcaseGmac2 As we reach the end of a whirlwind year, it’s time we reflect on some of that drunken public spending supposedly intended to save the America we know.

Each and every American should care about the $403.6 billion spent on corporate aid, because a great deal of that money has been heinously misappropriated.

While most of that TARP aid went to banks, it’s important to note that some 20% of all the U.S. bailout bucks went to the auto industry.

Today, in total, $87 billion has been funneled through the American auto industry, most of it by the Obama administration. Politicians don’t justify their actions as being the only way to save America’s automotive industry.

And while saving GM, Delphi and Chrysler probably has some merit – since the beginning of the recession, 150,500 automotive manufacturing jobs and about 78,000 jobs at auto dealerships have been lost – many Americans were still rightly outraged by the easily-exploited scandals that ensued: remember those corporate jets?

Well, the only automotive bailout that really burns my buns is the pointless rescue of GMAC.

Even in the eschewed realm of the “public good,” bailing out GMAC is a dubious proposition.

GMAC – founded in 1919– was for most of its life a financial services slave to General Motors.

By the 80s, as GM’s core business grew sicklier, GMAC helped the automaker stay relatively profitable. It was during this time that GMAC expanded into the highly-profitable home mortgage, insurance, commercial financing and online banking sectors (remember that Ditech and Ally Bank are GMAC’s minions).

By 2006, with GM already locking its sights on bankruptcy, GMAC was tossed to Cerberus Capital Management for a princely sum of $14.1 billion – twice the price Cerberus bought Chrysler for. That was probably the smartest move Rick Wagoner ever made.

Cerberus Capital Management, one of the largest private equity firms in the world, bought GMAC because it viewed financial services as a never-ending source of profit. In fact, Cerberus’ main reasoning for purchasing Chrysler was for its loan portfolio. Cerberus planned on separating the manufacturing arm of Chrysler from Chrysler Financial and selling it off. The goal was to merge Chrysler Financial and GMAC to form one the world’s largest financial services companies.

But we all know how that story ends: as the global economy seized, all of a sudden GMAC and Chrysler Financial suffered unimaginable losses.

To date, GMAC has lost over $5 billion in 2009; it made a small profit in 2008, but lost $2.3 billion in 2007.

The issue that really hurt GMAC in this current downturn is that, like AIG, they sold mortgage guarantees, a type of insurance that covers other companies from losses related to mortgage lending.

To survive the downturn, GMAC was transformed from a consumer finance lender into a Bank Holding Company, in order to take advantage of the Treasury’s TARP funds. Interestingly, in order to meet the minimum capital required instituted by the Federal Reserve, TARP money was lent to GMAC before it was a BHC. So, TARP money was used illegally, in order for GMAC to take advantage of the TARP money legally? Go figure.

In total, the government has lent GMAC $12.5 billion in taxpayer money in return for 35% ownership and “strict” regulation. The FDIC also gave the junk-rated company access to its debt-guarantee program to the tune of $7.4 billion in GMAC-issued debt.

The government did all this because politicians, the Treasury and the Obama automotive task force were coerced into believing that GMAC was a vital part of the automotive landscape.

There are a few problems with that theory.

“A Three Headed Monster”

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First off, GMAC isn’t the largest automotive lending company – since 2008, Toyota Financial has been the biggest. As GMAC continues to balance its books, it has raised lending requirements on consumer borrowers, thus reducing its share of the overall lending market. GM and Chrysler’s exclusivity agreements with GMAC haven’t been the helping hand the automaker’s were looking for, especially compared to the aid the captive lending units of Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan and Hyundai have provided in stemming losses.

GMAC and Chrysler Financial (two sides of the same coin) had to end or severely limit their various leasing programs and reduce much of the 0% interest, no-money-down schemes that have been extended to spur buying. The lack of leasing drastically reduced GM’s and Chrysler’s ability to sell fleet vehicles and luxury/ SUV vehicles.

So, despite the two bailouts GMAC received, GM and Chrysler continue to perform below the industry average in terms of sales, and that’s largely due to their lack of consumer credit.

GMAC’s relevance in automotive lending has continued to contract even further in 2009, as Chrysler and GM dealers start to seek alternatives. AutoNation, the largest dealer group in the nation with 272 dealerships, says that GMAC has only underwritten 9 loans at its dealership for 2009. That’s a 99% drop from 2008, when GMAC underwrote 1,527 AutoNation vehicles.

As GMAC has contracted, several banks have gained significant market share from the ailing lender, including Chase Auto Finance (up 129.5% YTD), US Bank (113%), Wachovia Dealer Services (103.1%) and Hyundai (103%).

According to Experian Automotive, the largest lenders for new car sales in 2009 are as follows: Toyota Financial (with 11.2% market share), followed by Chase (11%), then GMAC (9.1%) and Ford Motor Credit (7.1%).

I don’t believe in the excuse that not bailing out GMAC would have crippled automotive lending. Automotive lending remains highly profitable, even for GMAC; other competitors would have surely taken the place of GMAC quickly. Also, if GMAC were to fail, its automotive lending division would have been snapped up quickly by Chase, Bank of America… maybe even by Hyundai?

The second argument: GMAC is simply too big to fail. Even if GMAC isn’t a big lender today, it was in the past, GMAC currently has about $178 billion in assets and 15 million customers globally. My counter- argument is that we let Washington Mutual (WaMu) go bankrupt, which had $310 billion in assets and serviced a similar amount of customers as GMAC. When WaMu went bankrupt, the financial markets barely flinched.

If the U.S. government deems such a bank not important enough to save, why is GMAC important enough?

For that answer, you have to take a closer look at Cerberus. Cerberus, which is still a major owner in GMAC, has spent a tremendous amount of money and time lobbing on GMAC’s behalf. Cerberus spent $8 million lobbying for GMAC; some of those bills it lobbied for were the very ones that allowed GMAC to become a bank.

Steve-Rattner Cerberus was also instrumental in a deal that allowed Steve Rattner, Obama’s former Automotive Task Force Czar, to purchase Maxim and Blender Magazines. Rattner’s equity firm subsequently defaulted on its loans from Cerberus, worth $125 million. I’m sure Rattner’s personal entanglement with Cerberus was on his mind as his task force crafted the loans that would be eventually given to GMAC. Also a key factor that allowed Rattner to take such an important leadership role in the Obama Automotive Task Force, was the fact that he made over $100,000 in campaign contributions during Obama’s presidential elections.

In fact, Cerberus has gained splendidly from our bailouts. It still has a preferred interest in GMAC (keep in mind that the lending company may one day become profitable again), and, according to the Institutional Risk Analyst, Cerberus has gotten more than its money’s worth from its GMAC purchase through dividends and fees.

Without the bailouts, Cerberus would have been responsible for enough of the debt to put the hedge fund into bankruptcy. Now you should understand why Cerberus wanted bank holding status for GMAC: if the bank were to become insolvent, the FDIC would assume responsibility, not Cerberus.

Now the U.S. taxpayer is left on the hook for a company that is estimated to lose another $9.2 billion for 2009-2010 under the most adverse scenarios conducted under the Treasury’s “stress tests.”

GMAC, meanwhile, is seeking another $5.6 billion from the U.S. Treasury after the company failed to raise the necessary liquidity to pass the Treasury’s stress requirements – GMAC was the only company out of the 19 lenders included in the test that failed to do so. Will we give the company the money it wants?

The Treasury department has already provisioned the money for GMAC and has cleverly masked it by lumping it into program that will lend $30 billion worth of aid to small businesses; who knew GMAC qualified as a small business? GMAC’s portion of the aid package is intended to spur lending, but since GMAC is hemorrhaging money and needs the $5.6 billion to meet minimal liquidity requirements, I doubt much of the money will reach the hands of consumers.

Bottom-line: so long as Cerberus has the deep pockets to lobby, then the Obama administration will continue to “lend” money to a company that is one of the worst offenders of corporate greed. Remember my mention of Ally Bank (GMAC’s subsidiary) and the FDIC’s $7.4 billion in GMAC-issued debt?

Apparently, Ally Bank has already drunkenly collected huge assets deposits from its high-yield CD accounts (up 57% YTD), offering payouts 2.1 times the national average. Ally can do this because of the explicit backing of the FDIC and the inferred knowledge that the government will continue to finance GMAC’s lending. Financial analysts have already deemed Ally Bank’s scheme unsustainable. I guess that’s all GMAC has ever been good at.

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AutoBird Podcast – Episode 7

December 15, 2009 by Colin Bird

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